The irritating bit about the certitude of the advertising-is-dead, the-answer-is-awesomeness, canned-peas-are-an-experience, Facebook-is-fab, twitter-is-tops nouvelle vague is that there’s no real evidence to support the prognostications, theories, assured pronouncements from august symposia, and the information ‘broken telephone’ of the blog- and twitter-spheres.

It simply hasn’t been around long enough for reliable data or examples in terms of sales and other value creation over the long term. I’ve yet to see a case study that demonstrates anything other than a one-time effect. Or an example of sustained attititude change among a significant portion of the target. Or anything that relates a social media campaign to sales (other than using it as a straight sales channel which is not the same thing at all).

That’s the frustrating thing about new: it’s untested, has no history, the future is anybody’s and everybody’s best guess.

And yet there are library loads of statistics and case studies for the effects of the now besmirched and discredited use of traditional media advertising. This apparent squandering of funds can be correlated to (inter alia): awareness, trial, repeat purchase, positive attitude shift, brand preference, brand loyalty, creating word of mouth, changing behaviour, creating sustainable competitive advantage, justifying a premium price, extending product use or developing a previously untapped user base, and increasing a company’s stock price.

Then there’s the fact that most social media “successes” are for brands built by advertising, the awkward issue of cause and effect generally being swept away on a wave of triumphal euphoria.

Thousands of campaigns, decades worth of data, and myriad cases of moribund brands getting the Lazarus treatment from which to learn and arrive at informed decisions. All of which some suggest, should be consigned to the shredder or the recycling bin.

It seems a bit silly that the best alternative to not knowing which 50% of your budget is wasted, is potentially wasting 100%.